Ep 26: COVID-19 AND CAMPAIGNING, PART 2: How The Pandemic Is Impacting This Year’s Election Process
Please note: This podcast is not highlighting political points or races. It is focusing on the actual campaign process during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dr. Susan McManus grew up in a politically divided household, instilling her passion for politics at an early age. Born and raised in rural Pasco County to a family of citrus growers, she offers a unique perspective on state and national politics. Now an internationally recognized political analyst, Dr. McManus has appeared on every major broadcast, cable television, and radio network and has been interviewed by major newspapers in Florida, the U.S., and abroad. She also has earned the distinction of being Florida’s most quoted political scientist! Dr. McManus joins Sarina Fazan “On the Record” to discuss this unprecedented election year and the challenges that candidates are facing on the road to election day – from local races to the White House.
Dr. McManus explains, “This is the most interesting, from a political analyst and political science perspective, election that we’ve had in a long time. It’s also the most challenging for people who are offering themselves up for public office, because not only COVID-19, but you have an economic crisis and you have a lot of concerns about racial issues. All three, in and of themselves if they were separate, would be dominant, but when you have all three of them existing at the same time – and all affecting the other – it is very difficult for a candidate, particularly somebody running for a local office, to get their message across to the public. Everything is being dominated by presidential politics.”
As a result, political candidates at all levels have had to approach their campaigns differently this year. For local candidates especially, going door-to-door and attending large community meetings were essential strategies to campaign success in the past, allowing them to meet potential voters and to create personal connections.
“Now it’s hard to reach a lot of people at the same time, so you’re very dependent upon other platforms to get your message out. And, for the judicial candidates, they have an even bigger problem in that most people who are registered with no party affiliation don’t realize that they can actually vote for judicial candidates in primaries,” Dr. McManus says.
Limited to virtual campaigning, Dr. McManus describes some of the innovations taking place to increase voter engagement, such as virtual town hall meetings, themed online events, and even Zoom celebrity interviews with candidates. She shares this example, “Recently, there was a tea sponsored by the Florida Commission on the Status of Women, where you just signed in – you could drink tea in your home or whatever – but it was a way to grab women’s attention, men could listen too of course, about the women’s suffrage movement and what that was doing in the 19th amendment passage, which of course the 100th anniversary is this year.”
But, even with these campaign innovations, candidates are struggling to reach voters. “So many voters are so downtrodden by the heath issue, the COVID issue, and their economic status, that it’s really hard to get them to spend the time to tune in to some of these virtual events, which on the face of it, are very interesting and creative,” Dr. McManus says.
More than ever, candidates are relying on social media to spread their messages and to reach more potential voters. While this strategy does help campaigns save money, Dr. McManus cautions that candidates must be careful on social media platforms due to generational differences.
She explains, “Texting does not work with younger voters. They are very irritated by texting, particularly from someone telling them that they have not registered or whatever or in their face. A lot of younger people regard texting as their sort of private domain for their social life. So, when politicians intrude on it, they click out right away and they’re alienated by it, so that’s a good example of the generational difference. On the other hand, texting, we know from the 2018 election, can be a little bit problematic with older voters who are just now getting used to social media, mainly to talk to their grandchildren and so forth. But, when someone texts and says you haven’t voted yet, they’re wondering, so somebody’s following me around? There’s a little security concern there. So, there’s no means of campaigning that’s 100 percent great for everybody. One size does not fit all in campaigning, and it’s particularly the case in this day in age.”
Some candidates, who never relied on social media before, are having to learn technology while on the campaign trail. Not only must they navigate communicating on a new platform, but candidates also have to determine the specific messaging for each audience they are trying to reach. Dr. McManus states, “We are in an era of what we call microtargeting because there’s so much diversity within the electorate itself. For example, even within the Democratic Party, you have different kinds of caucuses. You have the Women’s Caucus, you have the LGBTQ Caucus, you have the Veterans’ Caucus, and so on and so forth. You can’t reach each of those groups with the same message or even the same means of communicating with them. Which is why we say that the toughest part of being a campaign manager or a candidate is figuring out precisely how to reach those narrow slices of an electorate.”
This is especially important in a state like Florida, where candidates win statewide races with a less than one percent margin of victory. Dr. McManus advises, “If you don’t microtarget and really figure out effective ways of communicating your message through these various slices that differ by age, generation, religion, party, and gender, you very well may lose the race.”
Another issue for Florida-based candidates is the recent spike in COVID-19 cases and the fear that it has generated. Dr. McManus says, “Fear does play into it. People are very hesitant to open the door to someone they don’t know, who may not have a mask on, or should have a mask on but doesn’t, or is getting too close. The same thing that people are worried about going to a large gathering, a meeting of some sort, even a club that they’ve belonged to for years or even a church session. People just are very, very nervous, not all but particularly older people, about mingling with people since Florida is one of the states with the highest incidence of COVID-19 at the moment.”
Social isolation due to COVID-19 is a complicating factor, especially when it comes to political debate. Dr. McManus explains, “The more negative news people hear, the more they sort of retrench, and spend less time with other people, so there’s not a lot of exchange of different ideas. People stick to close-knit friends and family more.”
She continues to describe the pandemic’s potential impact on voter turnout, saying, “And, I think one of the big challenges that a lot of candidates are going to have this fall is really energizing, mobilizing, and turning out college students, many of whom will be taking all their classes online. So, it is the case that traditionally colleges have really been the energy center for communal and collective action and in really exciting young people about voting. But really there’s a huge question how to reach that group who may not be on campus.” Dr. McManus believes that this is the hardest time to to run for office, and the toughest time for campaign managers and strategists to reach these narrow slices of the electorate.
In addition, candidates are facing difficulties when it comes to campaign financing, which especially hurts local candidates. Dr. McManus says, “You know, presidential candidates can tap into networks that someone running for a county commission, or a judicial post, or a school board position, they simply can’t tap into those kinds of networks. And, yet, it takes money to get your name out there.”
Not only is it difficult to get candidate information to voters, but many people are not even aware that there is an August 18th primary election in the state. Dr. McManus emphasizes, “The August 18th primary is so important because some of the offices that are at stake here are things that people hold near and dear. They are things that affect them locally like school boards and the court system and the county commission and legislators. All of those are offices that more directly affect the average voter day to day than even the Presidential election does. And yet so many people are unaware that August 18th is a big day. And, I might add, it’s the 100th celebration of the ratification of the 19th amendment giving women the right to vote.”
So, how do you get people to the polls? Dr. McManus says any one of the crises facing the state and the nation, including COVID-19, economic concerns, protests over racial equity, and even the debate around schools reopening, would have impact, but all of them simultaneously are leading to unprecedented issues for political campaigns. She explains, “These are all very pressing problems that can easily distract a voter from trying to find out about candidates that they may know nothing about or even to think about going to vote in a primary election. This is the toughest time we’ve ever seen for a candidate to really sell themselves to voters.”
Dr. McManus wants to remind Florida voters that there are three ways to cast their vote. She says, “One is to ask for a vote by mail ballot. Another is to do early voting in person, and the third way would be election day. And, I recently saw a survey where they asked Floridians what they would prefer, and it’s a pretty even mix, actually.”
Interestingly, Dr. McManus noted that a national study showed that a larger percentage of younger people don’t understand how to vote by mail. She says, “You can register online, and you can absolutely call into a Supervisor’s office as well and ask them to mail you a vote by mail ballot.”
She adds, “I think now we have clear enough evidence of the problems with younger people not knowing about voting method alternatives that both political parties, this time out, are working really, really hard to educate younger voters about these options.”
Dr. McManus feels confident that the state’s Supervisors of Elections are adequately preparing for election day. She emphasizes, “I think we have one of the best election systems in the entire country. Our Supervisors of Elections are miles ahead of supervisors in other states, even though they may get some criticism, I don’t know a one of them that doesn’t want people to vote. After all, they are elected positions, so why would they not want people to vote. They’re reaching out as best they can. The concern that some have is will they have enough hand sanitizer and all of that.”
She suspects that turnout for the Florida primary on August 18th will be low, but that more people may head to the polls in November for the presidential election. Dr. McManus says, “I just hope that people vote and realize what a precious thing it is. So many people in the world don’t have this opportunity to select their governing bodies and we do.”
Well known to audiences in Tampa Bay, Dr. McManus served as political analyst for WFLA Channel 8 (Tampa’s NBC affiliate) from 1998 to 2015. Since 2016, she has been the political analyst for ABC Action News (Tampa’s ABC affiliate). Dr. McManus is a featured columnist on sayfiereview.com, which is a widely read Florida-based political website. She also has authored or co-authored numerous publications on Florida politics.
Dr. McManus is a USF Distinguished University Professor Emerita in the Department of Government and International Affairs, School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies, where she has taught for 30 years. After receiving a degree in government from Florida State University, she received her master’s degree from the University of Michigan. She later returned to Florida State University, where she earned a Ph.D.
She serves on the UF Bob Graham Center For Public Service Council of Advisors and on the Board of Directors of the Florida TaxWatch Center for Florida Citizenship. Dr. McManus previously chaired the Florida Elections Commission from 1999-2003. Dr. McManus is not affiliated with any political party.
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